Week 3 Wrap up

NYG vs. TEN
The Giants look like they can't do anything right, lots of turnovers and penalties do not a win make.  However, as bad as they have been undervalued guys like Manningham have had value (over 75 yards receiving each game).

Although they give their fans headaches, there is value in NY.

CIN vs. CAR
Another Pitiful performance by the Carolina offense.  Have we finally found a QB who can hurt Steve Smith's value?  Keep in mind DeAngelo started off slow last year too and still finished well.

PIT vs. TB
It appears PIT will keep rolling with Mendenhall, I expect his value to stay the same or even increase when Big Ben returns.  On the TB side the wheels continue to fall off for Cadillac (<-  See what I did there).  He's averaging 2.5 YPC.  Look for TB to begin to get LeGarrett Blount involved in this offense over the bye week.  He could be a sneaky grab off the waiver wire this week.

BUF vs. NE
who would have thought the mighty Bills would put up 30 on the Pats this week?  They have given Lynch a majority of the touches in the backfield the past two weeks.  He should clearly be owned in all leagues now, but I'd have to be pretty desperate to put him in our starting lineup.

CLE vs. BAL
Anquan Boldin's clearly the WR to own in this offense.  Now that he is on a team without Fitz and Ray Rice is a little banged up maybe he'll put up a career year.  Speaking of Ray Rice, it seems like Baltimore was treating him like glass and that could continue with the nagging injury.  Peyton Hillis seems to have gained some long term value by being named the starter.  If I could think of a player to compare Hillis to it might be Thomas Jones.  Although he isn't electric or exciting he'll pile up yards if given the opportunity, even when his less .

SF vs. KC
Is KC really 3-0, or am I dreaming?  Looks like the glory days of Arrowhead are coming back. Meanwhile SF fired their offensive coordinator.  My brother asked me about trading Michael Crabtree.  My advice on Crabtree is to sit tight.  Maybe the new coordinator will get him more involved and I can't see his value getting much lower.  Bench him for better options until he proves he can get it done.

Say it with me now MO-ACK-EE.

DAL vs. HOU
Does it say how much I love Dez Bryant that Roy Williams had a huge game (5 rec 117yds 2 TDs), and I still like Bryant more.  He just appears to be so special whenever on the field.  He is fearless of the NFL game and speed, a terrific high ball catcher, and just plays the game violently.  I told our producer Eric Page that if I could compare him to one player it would be Anquan Boldin.  Acquire him while he is putting up these 50 yard games because he is ready to explode.  Coming out of the bye he should be rested and even more involved in the offense.

Dez Bryant looks the part of a prototypical NFL wideout

DET vs. MIN
Brett Farve looks like the quarterback we thought he'd be last year.  Jahvid Best has turf toe and could turn into what McFadden did his rookie year.  One big performance and then falls off the earth.

ATL vs. NO
Where ever you had Roddy White on your draft board in the preseason, it probably wasn't high enough.  It also seems that Lance Moore will resume his 2008 role as long as Reggie Bush is out.  I would try and pick him up and then sell in a few weeks before Reggie returns.

WAS vs. STL
Steven Jackson's pull came back as a mild pull, so he could make it back by next week.  If he doesn't the rams offense goes from mediocre to bad and Ken Darby is nothing to get excited about.

PHI vs. JAC
Maclin and Jackson seem to have cemented themselves as Vick's favorite targets, while Celek appears to have been forgotten.  Celek could still have a big game, but his owners would be wise to start making other plans in case this becomes a trend.  Some suggestions from our staff have been John Carlson, Tony Moeaki, and Jermaine Gresham.

IND vs. DEN
Wow Austin Collie!  Kyle Orton is surpassing even my expectations.  If you are weak at QB (ie you drafted Kevin Kolb and didn't make other plans) then try to snag him from an owner that has him on the bench.

Fantasy Owners who snagged Kyle Orton like their QBs to party.

OAK vs. ARI
Just another pedestrian (kidding of course) day for old Darren McFadden.  If someone has him sitting on their bench I would definitely probe them for his value.

SD vs. SEA
Two words:  Justin Forsett.  Thank you Pete Carroll for finally listening to me and featuring this guy.  Keep this up and you may actually win a lot of games this year.  I don't have to tell the wise fantasy owner about this guy.  This SHOULD be the first of many 20 touch games for Forsett.

NYJ vs. MIA
Yea, so you needed a WR and you didn't try and trade for Marshall last week...well told you so (Podcast).

Well, that's it for this week folks,

-Trip Maschmeyer

Trade Advice: Play the Hand you Have

Written by:  Luke Maschmeyer

Today’s article takes the mind of the card player and puts it into a fantasy football perspective. In my high school days (I know… I know… you’re thinking “yea okay sure let me just skip this fish tale and get to the facts” but I suggest you read this little blurp so you can make sense of the rest of the article), I used to pay for my weekend fun whether it was movies, eating out, or a trip downtown by being one of the better poker players out of my group of friends. This is not to say my poker game was by any means flawless , but I did make use of the cards dealt to me and knew when to make strategic moves as the short/big stack (player with the least/most chips) or depending upon the position I was in as the hand was dealt. Poker you see is a lot like Fantasy football, those with the most skill and strategy will often be the ones who over the long haul win more often than not. The players that make the most of the cards dealt tend to leave other participants cursing about how they knew they should have folded. In the same manner, a diligent fantasy football manager will make the most of his roster by strategically moving or choosing to keep individual players at crucial points of the season. This is the idea of knowing when to stay in the hand, raise the stakes, or just plain fold and minimize the damage.

Forcing yourself to take an objective look at your fantasy roster and determine which players have performed up to standards and which haven’t is the first step in determining whether or not you need to make a move. I think the best way to do this is to look at each position (QB, RB, WR, TE) as a whole and give a rating of sorts to that position. Are you top heavy with one star and left starting a scrub? Are you loaded at one position but weak at another? Do you have good overall balance but really lack a star QB? These are often good questions to ask when looking to trade. Once you have a good general analysis of the players you have in your theoretical “poker hand” it’s time to then take a look at the other teams in the league. In a good trade, you want to match strengths to weaknesses and vice versa. Once you have done that start mixing and matching until you find a trade that you are comfortable with as well as one the other team’s manager would be comfortable with (This is very important… don’t make one sided trade offers). If a trade is rejected, don’t be offended just try another owner and try and find out what the first manager did not like about the trade. He may just have a no trade policy on a proven guy like Adrian Peterson or a player who has burst on to the scene such as Arian Foster or Hakeeem Nicks.

Now that you have at least a general idea of what to do let’s highlight a few players who you might be looking to involve in a trade. Some of these are big names and some are not so keep that in mind when determining what you might be willing to offer.

Justin Forsett (RB –SEA): What is it about Cal running backs being fantasy relevant right now? I think Forsett at some point is going to break into a feature role in Pete Carroll’s offense. He’s an all around back with speed and strength and boasts an impressive 5.8ypc. At some point Pete Carroll will stop smelling the roses from his days at USC and realize that Forsett has more potential than Jones or Washington.
     What’s he worth at the poker table: If you can get him for a WR3 such as Louis Murphy or Jabar Gaffney or RB that only has temporary value like Snelling or Tolbert, make the move and stash him away until he breaks out.


Wes Welker (WR – NE): Okay I get it Wes Welker is Tom Brady’s bread and butter and he’s the reason their offense operates on third and short. What he is not though is the Meat and Potatoes of the Patriot’s offense. That distinction goes to the connection between Tom Brady and Randy Moss. I saw three things in the Pats week 2 game: Randy Moss make one handed TD catches look easy, Aaron Hernandez emerge as a third receiving threat, and Wes Welker getting the endzone for the third time this year. I don’t think Welker will continue to put up Touchdowns making him a serviceable WR2, but if you can move him for a better piece do so and do it quick before he returns to his 9 catches for 78 yards weekly stat lines.
     What’s he worth at the poker table: Look to move Welker for a RB with great upside like McFadden or Bradshaw or another WR more destine for the end zone.

Shonn Greene (RB –NYJ): After a terrible week 1 for fantasy owners, Greene came back in a timeshare with LT. I think Tomlinson will continue to be involved, but I think Greene will get 13-18 touches per game and the goal line work which still makes him the more valuable back in the long run. If acquired at the right price Greene could be a key part of Fantasy team looking to build a championship roster.
     What’s he worth at the poker table: If you can get Greene without giving up elite talent, he’s worth it. He’s not going to turn into Ray Rice but I don’t think you can call him a bust just yet. Be willing to move a QB2 or WR2 for him in the right trade.

Joe Flacco (QB – BAL): I was never one to be Wacco for Flacco, but I did think he would be a serviceable starting QB in 12 team leagues. He’s started out with two terrible games, but I think BAL will give him better protection and easy dump off’s Ray Rice to open up his ability to throw the ball down field.
     What’s he worth at the poker table: If you don’t have an elite QB, getting Flacco at what should be his low point might not be a bad option for the long haul. Look to trade your third RB or WR if you feel you have good replacements on the bench.

Colston has great hands, huge biceps, and enormous potential

Marques Colston (WR- NO): Colston’s numbers after two weeks are not flattering (10 catches 129 yards 0TD), but Colston is the go to guy in the Saints offense and with Reggie Bush being out there are more receptions to be distributed among the Saints wideouts. Colston will be a beneficiary of that and is a matchup nightmare for smaller DBs.
     What’s he worth at the poker table: Colston has elite WR potential and I would target whatever weakness a Colston owner might have.

Kyle Orton (QB – DEN): Do I think Kyle Orton will throw for 300yards a game? No. Do I think Kyle Orton is in a great system for a passer? Yes and that’s what matters for fantasy owners. Kyle Orton was a sleeper QB for me last year and in his second year in Denver he is beginning to show that he understands the system (67.4% completion percentage and 103.9 QB Rating). He has a group of young WR that appear ready to accept the challenge of replacing the production of Brandon Marshall without the Diva attitude. Look for Orton to be a top 12 and maybe even top 10 Quarterback by season’s end making him a serviceable guy with the right matchup or even a borderline weekly starter.
     What’s he worth at the poker table: Depending on your needs at QB and depth at other positions Orton could be worth anywhere from a bench player with good potential to a WR2/RB2.

Week 2 Picks - Trip

Buffalo vs. Green Bay
Miami vs. Minnesota
Kansas City vs. Cleveland
Chicago vs. Dallas
Arizona vs. Atlanta
Tampa Bay vs. Carolina
Philadelphia vs. Detroit
Ravens vs. Bengals
Pittsburgh vs. Tennessee
Seattle vs. Denver
St. Louis vs. Oakland
Houston vs. Washington
New England vs. New York Jets
Jacksonville vs. San Diego
New York Giants vs. Indianapolis
New Orleans vs. San Francisco

view everyone else's at forums.hitshtick.com
Eric's are at Eric's Completely Random Picks

Trip

Episode 6 - International Men Of Mystery

We're hand-crafting opinions about the upcoming week 2 game-by-game so you can get your personalized fantasy info. Who to start, who to sit, some sleepers, and trends we think have already started are all included, just for you. Wow, 1/16th of the year has gone by, but to me, it seems like only a week!

Keep your pods tuned to our cast (and SUBSCRIBE!)

-HS

What it iz

What I learned from Week 1

Wow! It’s finally over…the first week of Fantasy Football. I had a harder time going to sleep Saturday night than a 10-year-old on Christmas Eve. So what did you learn from week 1? Well, I learned that Calvin Johnson needs to learn how to catch (COME ON MAN! how could he drop that pass in the end-zone for the win). I also learned that Alex Barron, #71 of the cowboys, used to be a UFC submission specialist. It’s the only explanation for that super-ultra-mega death choke hold he put on that Redskin. Seriously though, there were a lot of things going on in week 1 that you had better take note of if you want to stay competitive in your league.

The first game I watched on Sunday was the Colts vs. Texans. I’m sure you had at least one player in this game (if not you’re an idiot). Of course the big story of this game was Arian Foster’s 241 yds and 3 TD’s. Now before you go and sacrifice your first born to the fantasy football gods as atonement for picking Chris Johnson, A.P., or Michael Turner with your top pick, wait just a sec. Keep in mind that the Colts have never been known for their stellar rush defense. Last season they had the 24th ranked rush defense giving 4.3 yards per attempt. They also lost their strong safety, Bob Sanders, in the first half (apparently he is the one on the team who is allowed to tackle RB’s). With those speedy but small LB’s, the Colts count on Sanders to come in and drop the THUNDA COOKIES on run plays (maybe they can pick up Fat Albert Haynesworth to clog up the middle, Redskins sure didn’t use him much....I hate him by the way). You have to look at all weapons the Texans have: Jones, Johnson, Walter, and Daniels were all targeted in the Red Zone. I’m not saying Foster isn’t going to be a must-start each week, but at the end of the season he won’t be on top.

Now on to the others. A.P turned out a decent game against a good Saints Defense - 84 rushing and 14 receiving isn’t half bad and look for him to put up similar numbers plus a TD against the Dolphins next week. Turner the Burner played more like an Easybake oven on Sunday with 42 yards and 7 receiving. What can you say besides he had a horrible match-up? Steelers rush defense is stout and kept every Falcon in check all day long. I expect Turner to blow up on Arizona next week, and the fact that he got 19 carries shows the team’s commitment to him and the rush game. Did you see how fast Chris Johnson was running? He topped out at 22 mph on that 76 yard TD run. Not impressed? Have your friend fire-up your mom’s Hyundai and try and keep up with him while he goes 22 mph. Go ahead I’ll wait...couldn’t do it, huh? I know man, I tried too. He defiantly showed why he was the number one pick in most drafts.

I also watched the Packers vs. Eagles. The Eagles need to fire their strength and conditioning coach. Their entire team was injured (I think at one point they ran out of players and Andy Reid had to suit up). What about Vick! It’s like he forgot that his career died two years ago. He played good and while I don’t think there will be any QB controversy, whichever one suits up is bound to beat up the Lions.

I know there is a ton I didn’t get to, like L.T. bitch slapping Greene and taking all the carries (really Greene? 0.7 points? I hope Ray Lewis follows you home and tackles your children) but we gotta save something to talk about on the show right? So that’s what it was and this is What it iz.

-Chase

Episode 5 - The Official Hit Shtick League

So, the first week of football is over and we sure have been cranking up the dial here at Hit Shtick! Hot fantasy opinions are being pulled out the oven left and right and this podcast is no different. Tune-in as we discuss our new Official Hit Shtick fantasy league and review week 1. And don't forget that bonus segment!

Keep your pods tuned to our cast.

-HS

Week 1 Sunday Recap

CLE vs. TB
Two notes both RB related. 22 Carries for Caddy and 9 carries for Peyton Hillis 41 yards and a TD. Who touted him in our draft? Two thumbs pointing at this guy. Also, popular sleeper Mike Williams caught a TD.

MIA vs. BUF
Buffalo looks bad....Real Bad. Only player I like in this game is R. Brown, although I’m not worried about Marshall by any means.

CIN vs. NE
Both Offenses had good days although Cincy did it mostly in garbage time. Luke's call on Gresham (see podcast "The Gospel of Luke") gets more interesting as the young TE grabs 6 receptions for 25 yards and his first TD.

DEN vs. JAC
Denver is a passing offense. Lloyd isn’t worth rostering, Royal should be better this year than last.

CAR vs. NYG
Deangelo got 16 carries to Stewarts 5, not as much of a time share as people might think. After Matt Moore’s 3 INTs they should pound the ball against TB next week.

DET vs. CHI
Calvin Johnson got robbed, I don’t care what the rule was.

ATL vs. PIT
Don’t freak on Turner. Also, 23 Targets for Rowdy Roddy!

Roddy White is disgusted you didn't have him in your top five!

TEN vs. OAK
CJ2k put on a show, but McFadden actually looked good in a featured role totaling 150 yards and a TD.

IND vs. HOU
Arian Foster WOW! The last time a RB opened with more rushing yards than Foster was OJ Simpson in 1973 (250 yards). I’m not crazy about his talent but this could be a special season for him.

ARI vs. STL
Larry Fitz targeted 15 times but only caught 3? Meanwhile Breaston is targeted 7 times and catches all 7 for 132 yards.

SF vs. SEA
Forsett 6.1 ypc, Jones 2.3 ypc, Washington 2.2 ypc….I’m just sayin’

Get him while he's still cheap

GB vs. PHI
Ryan Grant leaves the game early and is in a boot on the sideline. Brandon Jackson wasn’t bad in relief and is 100% worth rostering.

DAL vs. WAS
What an ugly game. Dez Bryant catches 8 of 12 balls thrown his way. The last time a rookie WR debuted with even close to that many targets was Eddie Royal when he got 11 against OAK (9 rec 146yards 1TD).

-Trip Maschmeyer

Trip's week 1 Picks

Alright guys, just so you don't get too bogged down having to scroll through our picks each week I think after this week we will only post one person's picks and you can reference the forums (see the green link on the right) if you want someone else's.

See mine and the others below in bold.

Minnesota at New Orleans - Ok, so I picked this one after the game and it probably shouldn't count for my record. But around here it is well known that I'm a Packers fan so it should be obvious I would pick the reigning SB champs.

Miami at Buffalo - I think Miami beats what's supposed to be a terrible offense (unless Spiller is some sort of Miracle worker)

Detroit at Chicago
Oakland at Tennessee - I'm a native so I have to go with the Titans
Cincinnati at New England
Carolina at NYG
Atlanta at Pittsburgh
Cleveland at Tampa Bay
Denver at Jacksonville
Indianapolis at Houston
Arizona at St Louis
Green Bay at Philadelphia - See above
San Fransisco at Seattle

Dallas at Washington - I don't worship the Cowboys like some here in the Big D, but I think Washington could be pretty awful this year.

Baltimore at NYJ
San Diego at Kansas City

-Trip

Stuarts Week 1 Predictions

Here are my predictions for Week One.

Saints vs Vikings - Saints (already played)
Panthers vs Giants - Giants
Falcons vs Steelers - Falcons
Browns vs Bucs - Browns (who gives a sh**)
Colts vs Texans - Colts
Dolphins vs Bills - Dolphins
Lions vs Bears - Lions (upset)
Raiders vs Titans - Raiders (upset)
Bengals vs Patriots - Patriots
Cardinals vs Rams - Rams
49ers vs Seahawks - 49ers
Packers vs Eagles - Packers
Cowboys vs Redskins - Cowboys
Ravens vs Jets - Ravens
Chargers vs Chiefs - Chargers

-Stuart

Eric's Predictions - Week 1

Let it be known that I flip a coin to make my picks, so if you can't beat me, well, that's what's fun about the NFL. Winners (predicted) in bold.

Here they are:

Minnesota at New Orleans - A loss already, I know.
Miami at Buffalo
Detroit at Chicago
Oakland at Tennessee
Cincinnati at New England
Carolina at NYG
Atlanta at Pittsburgh
Cleveland at Tampa Bay
Denver at Jacksonville
Indianapolis at Houston
Arizona at St Louis
Green Bay at Philadelphia
San Fransisco at Seattle
Dallas at Washington
Baltimore at NYJ
San Diego at Kansas City

So don't blame me if this doesn't work out, blame the coin. Or coinflip.com in this case. (No, that's not a real site)

Episode 4 - The Gospel According To Luke

And we're back! Tune in this week to hear special guest voice Luke Maschmeyer and our favorite fantasy team names. Watch for our upcoming "Official Hit Shtick League" draft review!

Keep your pods tuned to our cast!