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Monday, August 30, 2010

Episode 3 - Chris Johnson's Face

Take a listen as we discuss our favorite fantasy players at each position. Trip and Stuart break down their elite and Chase discusses his typical night at the club. Fun times.

Listen by adding us to iTunes or another subscriber! Over there on the right---->

Keep your pods tuned to our cast.
-HS

Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Draft Day’s Coming – Find the Perfect Companion for your Team


    Taking a player on draft day is much like any other decision in life; you need to know what you’re getting before you make the commitment. I mean, most sane people wouldn’t marry their spouse without first getting to know them first, right? Looking at a player’s season stats and saying, “oh look, player A had more yards and more TDs than player B last year, so I will take player A” is like going into a speed dating class and choosing the beautiful, aspiring actress over the fairly attractive medical sales rep who, for the past three years, has led her company in sales. While beauty and career are by no means the only things to look for in a spouse, the point in the Fantasy Football world is that you need to be aware that a year of season statistics is by no means the only factor you should consider when drafting a player. For those of you looking for dating or marital advice, you’ll have to look elsewhere, because this article is all about knowing the ins-and-outs of a few players you might be looking at to court you to the championship this year. Today I will highlight a few players’ “body” of work in hopes that you too will end up with the productive companion on your team over the girl that looked good, but just spends all your money.


Don't treat your draft preparation like it’s a speed date.


1. Elite WR


    So, you have read all the articles and you have finally decided that you are getting an elite WR this year. I mean, they are a sure thing if you get one of those top 5-8 WRs, right? Well, if this is indeed the route you’re taking, I am going to assume that you are taking one of them somewhere between the late first round or early third round. If you are thinking about taking one earlier than that… STOP reading this article try and get your money back from your league, and go invest in something you know more about. With that being said, when I am looking at the WR position I am looking for a guy who is consistently producing week in and week out. I should not have to worry about the week to week match-up on my number one WR. The first stat I look at is number of games without 60 yards or a TD. This is important because, if all of my WR production is found in a series of 3 or 4 games, then he really is only helping me in a quarter of the season (not what I would call a stud). Let’s first take a look at this stat with the top WRs in the league.


Name Games w/o 60 yards or a TD Comments
Andre Johnson HOU
1
Larry Fitzgerald ARI
2
New QB
Randy Moss NE
3
DeSean Jackson PHI
4
New QB
Reggie Wayne
5
Miles Austin
5
Break out Week 4
Brandon Marshall
5
New Team
Roddy White
6
Greg Jennings
6


    As we all know, TDs are bit of an inconsistency when it comes to Fantasy Football. All of these guys should finish between 6-16TDs but that in itself is a large spread. Let’s eliminate the unpredictability of TD and look at how consistent these guys’ yard production is week-in and week-out by seeing how many games they failed to produce 60 yards or more, and how many games they produced 100 plus yards.


Name Games w/o 60 yards or more Games w/o 100 yards or more
Andre Johnson HOU
1
6
Larry Fitzgerald ARI
6
3
Randy Moss NE
6
5
DeSean Jackson PHI
6
5
Reggie Wayne
6
5
Miles Austin
7
5
Brandon Marshall
6
3
Roddy White
10
4
Greg Jennings
6
5


    Okay, so what does all this mean when it comes to draft day? Well, the first thing that you probably already knew and that even these charts conclude is that Andre Johnson is a flat out statistical beast. He is the number one WR to take, and in my opinion, may be the only one worthy of a first round pick.


    The next conclusion you can make is that TDs are not the stat to look at when looking at WR. Look for consistent weekly production. You want the guy that has that special place in his QB’s heart just like you want the wife (or husband for our female readers) of your dreams. Here is what I am not doing -- taking Brandon Marshall, Roddy White, or Larry Fitz as the number two or three WR off the board and here’s why… Roddy White had 10 games in which he didn’t top 60 yards and only 4 in which he topped 100 yards. I can’t afford to count on 11 TD to be the reason I draft a WR. Brandon Marshall and Larry Fitzgerald both have unproven QB’s and only topped 100 yards three times each last year. I still think they are good picks at the end of the second or third round, but I sure am not taking them before pick 20 when four other great WRs are on the board. Give me Greg Jennings, Reggie Wayne, or Randy Moss who are giving me one less 100 yard game than Andre Johnson. When it comes to getting that elite WR, don’t be locked in on one guy; Be open to drafting 3 or 4 different guys and having an extra stud RB or QB from the first three rounds.


2. RB2 Price for RB 1 Production

    I won’t go as in-depth on this one, but say you’re looking for that number two running back to produce RB1 stats. I’ll give you three guys that all finished in the top 15 RBs last year who could be great value picks.


Ryan Grant (ADP Yahoo 25.6) – Grant has had back to back 1200 yard seasons and is the only real running back to get significant carries in Green Bay. Winter weather and protecting Aaron Rodgers both lend to Ryan Grant continuing to be a workhorse for the pack.


Cedric Benson (ADP Yahoo 34.0) – Cedric the Entertainer rushed for 1251 yards and 6 TD in 13 games last year. Only Chris Johnson averaged more rushing yards per game last year than Benson. He, like Grant, is one of the remaining species of workhorse RBs not involved in a RBBC. The additions the Bengals added at WR means defenses can’t load the box against Benson and he should be a lock for 1200 yards and 6-8 TDs.


Sometimes a new team is all a guy needs to break free. The Bengals have shown that Benson is a reliable RB.


Joseph Addai (ADP Yahoo 69.4) - All Joseph Addai has done is average 1150 total yards and 11 TD the past three years. I get it Peyton Manning is the key to the Colts offense, but Addai is the guy that helps keep the machined well-oiled. He does just enough to open up the field for Peyton Manning and his 51 receptions last year was 6th among RBs.

Other RB with good value: Matt Forte (82.7), Marion Barber (91.7), Arian Foster (96.2), Ahmad Bradshaw (106.9) and Jerome Harrison (107.5).

3. The Ever so Important TE??


    So, you were too lazy last year to figure out which TE to draft. You knew Gates was good and took him in the 4th round. Turns out you ended up okay, but even if you drafted him, you probably could have gotten great value on some other TE late in the draft or off the waiver wire. This year you have done your homework and you know that TE is deep; maybe 10 or 12 guys could break the 800 yards and 8 TD marks. So, when do you take a TE and which ones? Brad Evans of Yahoo wrote a great article on why you can wait on a TE. You can find it here (Position Primer: Tight End) and I won’t waste time rewriting a point already proven by Evans. Here are a few guys you might end up with late in the draft that could pay off.


Visanthe Shiancoe: He gets Favre;s back, Sidney Rice is missing significant time due to hip surgery, and Harvin has health concerns… who else is Brett Favre throwing to? Trust me on this one, Brett Favre loves this guy (11 of Favre’s 33 TD) and didn’t come back to hand off to AP 40 times a game. If the Vikes are going to be successful, Shiancoe needs to be better than just good.


Brent Celek: Trivia Question what TE finished 4th (Vernon Davis, Clark, and Gates were 1 2 3) in Fantasy Football points last year? Answer: not Tony Gonzalez, not Jason Witten… if you answered Brent Celek, you are correct. He has great size and hands (76 receptions and 971 yards last year), and we know Philly loves to pass. I don’t think another 900 yards and 7 TD is unreasonable, and at ADP of 62.1, he’s the seventh TE being taken on average.


Who’s that? It’s FF number 4 TE from last season Brent Celek.


Zach Miller: Okay, I Know Oakland is bad… but, this guy is worth drafting. Jason Campbell helped make Chris Cooley a household name, and if you don’t think Campbell is an upgrade over Jamarcus “Purple Drinking” Russell, then you haven’t watched the Raiders for the last two years. Campbell will find Miller and he will put up another 800 yards and 4-6 TD, which is great value at his current ADP of 111.6 or the 12th TE being selected.


    Write these names down or star them on your cheat sheet. Let Joe Schmo take the first TE off the board in round 3 or 4 and settle for a consistent producer in rounds 10-13. Best of luck to you in your drafts and remember, it’s not always the sexy girl that you want to bring home to momma.


-Luke Maschmeyer

Saturday, August 21, 2010

Trip Talks: You're drafting pros, so why not draft like one?


     Ok guys, since we just finished our mock draft two weeks ago I’m going to talk to you about some drafting philosophy.  We spoke on our podcast last week about the obvious things like not drafting a kicker until the last round and not drafting a defense too early.  A prime example of how this can work to your advantage came last year when I drafted Steve Smith NYG in the 14th round, long after most people took their defense.  It seems like no matter how much I preach against these practices, the top four or five defenses will come off the board before round nine.  Don’t be that fool, depth at wide receiver and running back is more important.




     Now let’s talk about the different mindsets I like to have for different draft positions.  For our purposes we’ll break the draft into three separate segments 1-4, 5-8, and 9-12.  First, let’s talk about positions 1-4.  Most years I feel like drafting in these spots gives one a distinct advantage towards winning a championship.  You are almost guaranteed to get a player who will produce at a high level all year.  Because I would have one of the best players to build around, I would make sure that my following selections (rounds 2-9) have a high “floor” of production, but maybe not as high of a “ceiling.”  I’ll label these types of players as Low risk/low reward and some examples in my mind this year would be Peyton Manning, Marion Barber, and Hines Ward.  These players are relatively safe picks that will help prevent your opponents from making up that talent gap that you established in the early rounds.  In the later rounds you can draft for upside like others.





     Next, we’ll talk about drafting in spots 5-8.  It generally takes a more competitive and well studied player (or maybe just plain lucky) to succeed when drafting from these spots.  It’s all about value in the middle of the draft.  You pick the talents and situations that fall to you, but in order to do so you must have spent considerable time on your cheat sheets.  Almost as important is being aware of who everyone else has drafted so you can predict who should fall as the value picks.  Keeping track of these picks can be done with a simple table including all the teams in your league.  It also helps to mock before your draft to help you know who might fall to you when you are one of the middle picks.




     Finally, let's talk about drafting from the bottom of the draft, picks 9-12.  Here is where the high risk/high reward players need to be targeted.  Players like Jamaal Charles, Joe Flacco, and Johnny Knox need to be in the crosshairs.  Only by making picks like these will one be able to make up the talent gap that the earlier picks have over them.  If you drafted late last year and landed CJ2K and Ray Rice, who each had some question marks about their role, you probably made the playoffs and maybe even won your league.



Well that’s all for today folks good luck, and most of all have fun.

-Trip

Wednesday, August 18, 2010

New Daily Feature - Highlight Video Of The Day

I know the wait between podcasts is just unbearable, so we are introducing a new feature - the Highlight Video Of The Day.  We all thought you'd appreciate not having to sift through tons of YouTube garbage to find that one awesome highlight vid.  Besides, this is something we enjoy seeing too.  So click on the link up there and look forward to watching new content here every day.

EVERY DAMN DAY.

Just click the link. 

Keep your pods tuned to our cast.
-HS

Monday, August 16, 2010

Episode 2 - Don't Look At Old People

We start out by reviewing last week's mock draft and get into other fantasy topics including running backs by committee. We also introduce "Stat-man" Stuart and take a phone call from a very angry fantasy owner. At the end, we start a new regular segment - the "Wacky Bonus Segment" - where Chase discusses the people who annoy him the most at the local gym.

Direct Link: Episode 2

Keep your pods tuned to our cast.
-HS

Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Episode 1 - Mock Draft

Well here it is, the first show, go hog wild. In this episode we discuss and joke about players while taking part in a mock draft. It was fun for us so it should be for you too.

Direct link: Episode 1

Keep your pods tuned to our cast.
-HS

Saturday, August 7, 2010

Just Glad To Be Here

The Hit Shtick held its first official podcast today and it should be uploaded by tomorrow.  Our fantasy football pants have been going crazy for a while now so we needed this release!

We did a full mock draft so be sure to give us, Trip & Chase, a listen before you start your own draft.

Keep your pods tuned to our cast.
-HS